ON APRIL 24, 2006, I SEND THE FOLLOWING EMAIL TO TREVOR JONES OF GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA ON THE ISSUE OF THE EARTHQUAKE RISK FOR PERTH AND THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA:
Some weeks ago, I received the December edition of the AUSGEO news which featured an article by yourself and Miriam Middlemann about the Cities Project Perth natural hazard risk. I subsequently went to your report on the Geoscience Australia website to see what comments had been made about earthquake risk as I have some comments to pass on which may be of interest to you about reasonably recent earthquakes in the southern Swan Coastal Plain around Bunbury and Busselton which may affect your assessment of Perth's risk rating. I should point out that I'm a geologist and have worked in the south west of WA for most of my life.
Here's the three comments that I hope will be of interest:
1) Several years ago, I was speaking with Ray Mewett (now deceased) who told me of an earthquake in the Dunsborough in the 1940s. He had lived in the area for all of his life and he advised that, in the 40s, he felt an earthquake one night while he was at home in the Dunsborough area. The next morning, he went out to inspect his farm and found a low (about 30 cm), north-south striking escarpment had been formed through one of his properties that lay close to what I know is the Dunsborough fault. Some time later, I met Ray's son (sorry, his name escapes me) to whom I related this story. His response was that he'd never heard his father talk about the escarpment but he can clearly recall being told that, after the earthquake, a well was found to have gone dry. His father spent some time and money trying to find where the water had gone to but without success, so that well lay abandoned thereafter.
2) Several years ago, I was studying the 1990 Department of Agriculture report written by Tille and Lantzke on the soils of the Busselton/Margaret River region. As shown on the attachment, the soil unit Ad2 is Abba Deep Sandy Dunes, a prime host of heavy mineral deposits such as ilmenite and zircon which have been extensively mined in the past in this region. Tille and Lantzke define Ab2 as "gently sloping low dunes and rises (0-5% gradients) with deep bleached sands". The north-south displacement in the Ad2 soil unit, which corresponds to the geological unit Bassendean sands with an estimated age of less than 100,000 and which I have coloured yellow on the attachment, is striking and strongly suggestive of an earthquake with some 2000 metres of lateral displacement along what I understand has been mapped by Geological Survey of WA geologists as the Busselton fault.
3) In the 1980s, while exploration manager for Westralian Sands Ltd (now Iluka Resources) at Capel, I directed a drilling team to explore the region north-east of Bunbury in what is known as the Kemerton industrial park area. On the western side of this industrial part, a rival company Cable Sands (WA) Pty Ltd - now part of the BeMax group - was known to have found the northern extension of the mineral sand deposits contained within the Bassendean sands. The drill crew drilled along a public road reserve and the geologist in charge of that rig subsequently told me that they had duly found the strand line (our name for a mineral sand deposit) but its base was several metres lower than expected. From memory, its base lay close to 0.0 AHD whereas it should have been somewhere between 4 and 10 m above AHD. We assumed that this was because of some post-depositional movement. It was only some time later that, when looking at a topographic map of the general area, I noticed that there was a unique topographic feature to the east of this lowered mineral sand deposit that was found nowhere else on the southern part of the Swan Coastal Plain. The feature was Benger Swamp, a large (5 km circumference) circular wetland located just to the west of the Darling escarpment which marks the eastern limit of the coastal plain. All other wetlands on the coastal plain are either very small or are elongated to reflect their history of being formed in swales between shoreline-dependent dune systems. My conclusions were that, at some stage since the Kemerton mineral sand deposit was formed, there had been a very significant lowering of a roughly triangular or wedged-shaped section of the coastal plain as shown in the attached drawing (apologies for its poor quality).
Taken together, these three examples suggest to me that there is far more tectonic movement affecting the Swan Coastal Plain on which Perth is largely sited than has previously been considered. I believe that the earthquake risk to Perth is therefore significantly higher than what recent seismic records indicate.
I don't know how you can use this information, regardless of whether you agree with my conclusion or not, but I hope it is of interest nonetheless.
Saturday, April 22, 2006
REVIEW OF BOOK ON "Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide"
Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide
Edited by S. J. Baines and R. H. Worden (2004)
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 233.
Geosequestration is the geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the subsurface in saline aquifers, existing hydrocarbon reservoirs or unmineable coal seams. As the editors of this excellent publication state, it is one of the more technologically advanced (but expensive) options available for storing CO2 produced from the combustion of fossil fuels as a practical solution to CO2 pollution of the world’s atmosphere.
Many of the articles contained in this hardcover book arose from a technical session held at the 2001 European Union of Geosciences conference held in Strasbourg (France). Apart from a general introductory article by the editors, the remaining 240 pages comprise 15 articles focusing on mostly European and American geology and gas injection projects or theoretical assessments, although the content should be readily applicable to similar geological environments elsewhere on the planet.
Several articles provide useful information on existing CO2 deposits within sedimentary sequences, some many millions of years old. This suggests that geosequestration is feasible, provided potential leakage hazards are recognised, assessed and monitored to ensure an acceptably low overall risk.
While faults are an obvious potential source of CO2 migration out of the storage reservoir, chemical interactions between pre-existing minerals and the injected CO2 are shown to be an important factor in assessing long-term security of the CO2 reservoir. The editors’ article on the long-term fate of CO2 in the subsurface explains some of the possible chemical reactions between CO2 and carbonate or aluminosilicate minerals. Anorthite, zeolite, smectite and other Fe- and Mg-clay minerals are likely to react with injected CO2, so their presence must be determined prior to CO2 injection.
Rochelle et al. go further and state that chemical processes and hence chemical stability will also be dependent upon the structure, mineralogy and hydrogeology of the lithologies of strata into which CO2 is injected. Individual storage operations will therefore have to take into account local geological, fluid chemical and hydrological conditions.
Some 2.3 million tonnes of CO2 have been injected into a saline aquifer beneath the North Sea since 1999. Three papers describe aspects of results and simulations from this trail. Johnston et al. demonstrate a simulated increase in caprock integrity when CO2 is placed into the saline aquifer, suggesting that the chemistry of the sedimentary rocks into which CO2 is to be injected may assist in long-term reservoir security. Conversely, Zweigel et al. report on their simulation of the same saline aquifer, concluding that the 6.5 metre shale caprock does not fully inhibit upward migration of CO2. Finally, Arts et al. report on seismic monitoring of the injection area and express confidence that there has been no significant leakage into the overlying Pliocene shales.
To give an idea of the potential scale of geosequestration, Laenen et al. estimate that parts of a carbonate sequence in the Roer Valley graben of north Belgium could store up to 130 million tonnes of CO2, while six coalbed methane target areas containing an estimated 53 to 79 million tonnes of methane could store at least 400 million tonnes of CO2 once the methane has been extracted.
The book concludes with two papers on related but relevant topics. Bachu and Gunter discuss the injection of acid gas (hydrogen sulphide and CO2) into depleted oil and gas reservoirs in Alberta, Canada. Stenhouse and Savage then describe the lessons learned from the monitoring of a nuclear waste repository in New Mexico, USA, where geotechnical, environmental and subsidence issues were important considerations in the repository’s long-term security.
Criticisms of this publication are few and mostly minor. There is no list of abbreviations and it would have been useful to summarise the methods by which CO2 is removed from power station exhaust gas and the dangers posed by uncontrolled release of CO2 onto the land. The most serious criticism is that little space is devoted to the potential storage of CO2 in unmineable coal seams – just 4 pages relating to Westphalian coal in northern Belgium. Considering that the editors highlighted such coal seams as major potential sites for geosequestration, this paucity of coverage is surprising.
Overall, however, this book is of a high technical standard and it deserves to be widely available to policy makers and the public. At a cost of GBP75.00, it isn’t cheap but the 16 papers cover a diverse range of technical aspects of geosequestration and the publication warrants its use as an essential reference in academic and research institution libraries.
Edited by S. J. Baines and R. H. Worden (2004)
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 233.
Geosequestration is the geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the subsurface in saline aquifers, existing hydrocarbon reservoirs or unmineable coal seams. As the editors of this excellent publication state, it is one of the more technologically advanced (but expensive) options available for storing CO2 produced from the combustion of fossil fuels as a practical solution to CO2 pollution of the world’s atmosphere.
Many of the articles contained in this hardcover book arose from a technical session held at the 2001 European Union of Geosciences conference held in Strasbourg (France). Apart from a general introductory article by the editors, the remaining 240 pages comprise 15 articles focusing on mostly European and American geology and gas injection projects or theoretical assessments, although the content should be readily applicable to similar geological environments elsewhere on the planet.
Several articles provide useful information on existing CO2 deposits within sedimentary sequences, some many millions of years old. This suggests that geosequestration is feasible, provided potential leakage hazards are recognised, assessed and monitored to ensure an acceptably low overall risk.
While faults are an obvious potential source of CO2 migration out of the storage reservoir, chemical interactions between pre-existing minerals and the injected CO2 are shown to be an important factor in assessing long-term security of the CO2 reservoir. The editors’ article on the long-term fate of CO2 in the subsurface explains some of the possible chemical reactions between CO2 and carbonate or aluminosilicate minerals. Anorthite, zeolite, smectite and other Fe- and Mg-clay minerals are likely to react with injected CO2, so their presence must be determined prior to CO2 injection.
Rochelle et al. go further and state that chemical processes and hence chemical stability will also be dependent upon the structure, mineralogy and hydrogeology of the lithologies of strata into which CO2 is injected. Individual storage operations will therefore have to take into account local geological, fluid chemical and hydrological conditions.
Some 2.3 million tonnes of CO2 have been injected into a saline aquifer beneath the North Sea since 1999. Three papers describe aspects of results and simulations from this trail. Johnston et al. demonstrate a simulated increase in caprock integrity when CO2 is placed into the saline aquifer, suggesting that the chemistry of the sedimentary rocks into which CO2 is to be injected may assist in long-term reservoir security. Conversely, Zweigel et al. report on their simulation of the same saline aquifer, concluding that the 6.5 metre shale caprock does not fully inhibit upward migration of CO2. Finally, Arts et al. report on seismic monitoring of the injection area and express confidence that there has been no significant leakage into the overlying Pliocene shales.
To give an idea of the potential scale of geosequestration, Laenen et al. estimate that parts of a carbonate sequence in the Roer Valley graben of north Belgium could store up to 130 million tonnes of CO2, while six coalbed methane target areas containing an estimated 53 to 79 million tonnes of methane could store at least 400 million tonnes of CO2 once the methane has been extracted.
The book concludes with two papers on related but relevant topics. Bachu and Gunter discuss the injection of acid gas (hydrogen sulphide and CO2) into depleted oil and gas reservoirs in Alberta, Canada. Stenhouse and Savage then describe the lessons learned from the monitoring of a nuclear waste repository in New Mexico, USA, where geotechnical, environmental and subsidence issues were important considerations in the repository’s long-term security.
Criticisms of this publication are few and mostly minor. There is no list of abbreviations and it would have been useful to summarise the methods by which CO2 is removed from power station exhaust gas and the dangers posed by uncontrolled release of CO2 onto the land. The most serious criticism is that little space is devoted to the potential storage of CO2 in unmineable coal seams – just 4 pages relating to Westphalian coal in northern Belgium. Considering that the editors highlighted such coal seams as major potential sites for geosequestration, this paucity of coverage is surprising.
Overall, however, this book is of a high technical standard and it deserves to be widely available to policy makers and the public. At a cost of GBP75.00, it isn’t cheap but the 16 papers cover a diverse range of technical aspects of geosequestration and the publication warrants its use as an essential reference in academic and research institution libraries.
ARE WE SERIOUS ABOUT SAVING YOUNG LIVES ON OUR ROADS?
At first glance, the connection between the tragic loss of young lives on our roads and the reduction in crime rates in New York city seems remote. But there are two connecting factors. First, New York administrators decided that they wanted to get tough on crime and the resolve to adopt the same attitude here in WA in relation to young people killing and injuring themselves in motor vehicle accidents is increasing.
Second, as explained in Malcolm Gladwell’s book “The Tipping Point”, the most important decision in New York was to adopt the Broken Window concept: even the smallest anti-social act was to be considered unacceptable and the full force of the law would be applied. The result was that criminals, who are for the most part perceptive, human beings like you and I, realised that here was a community that was going to get tough on crime, so it made sense not to undertake criminal activity.
In Parliament, I have argued that we have done most of the obvious things needed to make our roads safer for all who use them. Motor vehicle designs are much improved, safety belts are compulsory, riding in the backs of utilities is banned, blood alcohol levels must be below certain levels, driver education is much improved and so on.
But deaths and injuries continue to occur on our roads at an unacceptable rate, especially for people under the age of 25. Why is this? I believe that we haven’t yet properly understood the psychology, the thought processes, of young people. Most serious traffic accidents now involve spur of the moment decisions by drivers to do something stupid: drive fast to impress the girl friend, ignore the signs of drowsiness, show off to our mates, and so on.
So one thing is lacking: we haven’t yet got the message across to these people that any mistake while driving, no matter how minor they might think it is, can result in a serious traffic accident.
If we want to significantly reduce the accident rate among young drivers, we as a community have to say to them that any infringement of the traffic laws is totally unacceptable and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Just as New Yorkers said they wouldn’t accept even one broken window, so we have to say that we won’t accept even one minor traffic infringement from young drivers.
I propose that all drivers under the age of 21 must display a ‘Y’ plate on their motor vehicles. Our police will then be instructed to apprehend any Y plate driver who commits any traffic infringement. Minor breaches of the road rules, such as changing lanes without indicating or even the smallest squealing of tyres, will attract the maximum penalty of fines and/or demerit points. Serious offences such as driving without a license would also result in impoundment of the vehicle, regardless of who owned the vehicle (unless it was stolen, in which case the illegal activity is to be treated even more seriously).
As Jim Kelly reported in the Sunday Times on October 9, getting tough with P-plate drivers in New Zealand has made a big difference to the death toll. But 101 dead young people in that country in 2002 is still unacceptable.
In New York, fare evaders on the underground rail system were handcuffed together and forced to wait in a queue in the station until 20 such people were apprehended. Then, as a group, they were marched upstairs to be processed in a specially outfitted bus, to be released an hour or so later. Fare evasion plummeted.
In New York, graffiti artists were allowed to spend three nights defacing new train carriages and then apprehended, whereupon they were forced to see their ‘artwork’ removed or painted over. Strange as it may seem, they were devastated by the loss of what they considered to be the product of their talent and three days of hard work. Most never tried to deface carriages again.
We have to get a message into the heads of all young drivers that any traffic infringement will not be tolerated. We have to warn them that, thanks to the Y plate, they will be subject to far more public and police scrutiny than in the past. We have to make them realise that they will get caught, sooner rather than later, and that they will pay whatever penalties their stupid driving behaviour warrants.
Most importantly, we have to say to them that they will look anything but cool to their mates or girlfriends if they have to catch the bus or walk once they lose their license or their car.
We have to make it a privilege, not a right, for any person to own a motor vehicle and to have a license to drive that vehicle. Being a privilege, we as a community can take that motor vehicle registration or drivers’ license back if the privilege is abused. And we have to show that we mean what we say.
New York city repaired its broken windows within a day of the breakage. That sent out a message that even minor anti-social actions would not be tolerated. West Australians should demand almost absolute compliance with the traffic laws from young inexperienced drivers. They have to know that even minor traffic infringements are unacceptable.
Second, as explained in Malcolm Gladwell’s book “The Tipping Point”, the most important decision in New York was to adopt the Broken Window concept: even the smallest anti-social act was to be considered unacceptable and the full force of the law would be applied. The result was that criminals, who are for the most part perceptive, human beings like you and I, realised that here was a community that was going to get tough on crime, so it made sense not to undertake criminal activity.
In Parliament, I have argued that we have done most of the obvious things needed to make our roads safer for all who use them. Motor vehicle designs are much improved, safety belts are compulsory, riding in the backs of utilities is banned, blood alcohol levels must be below certain levels, driver education is much improved and so on.
But deaths and injuries continue to occur on our roads at an unacceptable rate, especially for people under the age of 25. Why is this? I believe that we haven’t yet properly understood the psychology, the thought processes, of young people. Most serious traffic accidents now involve spur of the moment decisions by drivers to do something stupid: drive fast to impress the girl friend, ignore the signs of drowsiness, show off to our mates, and so on.
So one thing is lacking: we haven’t yet got the message across to these people that any mistake while driving, no matter how minor they might think it is, can result in a serious traffic accident.
If we want to significantly reduce the accident rate among young drivers, we as a community have to say to them that any infringement of the traffic laws is totally unacceptable and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Just as New Yorkers said they wouldn’t accept even one broken window, so we have to say that we won’t accept even one minor traffic infringement from young drivers.
I propose that all drivers under the age of 21 must display a ‘Y’ plate on their motor vehicles. Our police will then be instructed to apprehend any Y plate driver who commits any traffic infringement. Minor breaches of the road rules, such as changing lanes without indicating or even the smallest squealing of tyres, will attract the maximum penalty of fines and/or demerit points. Serious offences such as driving without a license would also result in impoundment of the vehicle, regardless of who owned the vehicle (unless it was stolen, in which case the illegal activity is to be treated even more seriously).
As Jim Kelly reported in the Sunday Times on October 9, getting tough with P-plate drivers in New Zealand has made a big difference to the death toll. But 101 dead young people in that country in 2002 is still unacceptable.
In New York, fare evaders on the underground rail system were handcuffed together and forced to wait in a queue in the station until 20 such people were apprehended. Then, as a group, they were marched upstairs to be processed in a specially outfitted bus, to be released an hour or so later. Fare evasion plummeted.
In New York, graffiti artists were allowed to spend three nights defacing new train carriages and then apprehended, whereupon they were forced to see their ‘artwork’ removed or painted over. Strange as it may seem, they were devastated by the loss of what they considered to be the product of their talent and three days of hard work. Most never tried to deface carriages again.
We have to get a message into the heads of all young drivers that any traffic infringement will not be tolerated. We have to warn them that, thanks to the Y plate, they will be subject to far more public and police scrutiny than in the past. We have to make them realise that they will get caught, sooner rather than later, and that they will pay whatever penalties their stupid driving behaviour warrants.
Most importantly, we have to say to them that they will look anything but cool to their mates or girlfriends if they have to catch the bus or walk once they lose their license or their car.
We have to make it a privilege, not a right, for any person to own a motor vehicle and to have a license to drive that vehicle. Being a privilege, we as a community can take that motor vehicle registration or drivers’ license back if the privilege is abused. And we have to show that we mean what we say.
New York city repaired its broken windows within a day of the breakage. That sent out a message that even minor anti-social actions would not be tolerated. West Australians should demand almost absolute compliance with the traffic laws from young inexperienced drivers. They have to know that even minor traffic infringements are unacceptable.
PUBLIC FUNDING OF POLITICAL PARTIES THREATENS DEMOCRACY
Taxpayer funding of political parties is an attempt by the major parties to hide the poor state of their finances and the decreasing numbers of lay party members.
Party power brokers know it is easier to accept public funding after each election than to control large numbers of lay members who want to be actively involved in decision-making and policy-setting.
Former Liberal MP Bernie Masters believes that his opposition to public funding of political parties contributed to his loss of support from his former party.
“In late 2003 when this issue was first raised by Electoral Affairs minister Jim McGinty, I advised then leader Colin Barnett that I was opposed to taxpayers’ money being used in this way,” Mr Masters said.
“The issue was then raised at my preselection where I was criticised for daring to oppose what was the party line in support of taxpayer funding of political parties,” he said.
“The arguments in support of funding the major parties in this way are based upon the perceived need to stop donors from having undue influence over the parties and candidates to whom they’re providing money.”
“However, unless laws are created to prevent donations being made to political parties except from the public purse, then the potential will always remain for someone to try and buy influence by making a donation.”
“The truth is that donations to political parties from their usual sources are drying up.”
“The Labor Party gets most of its money from the union movement, but union membership is at an all time low level and the ability of unions to fund the ALP is being stretched.”
“Business donations to the Liberal Party are now available for the public to see and many companies fear upsetting their shareholders or losing customers if they provide money to just one party.”
“More and more companies now make relatively small donations to both major parties at election time so as not to annoy a party that may form the next government.”
“Ultimately, taxpayer funding of political parties is a threat to our democratic political system since it will make lay party members even less important than they are at present.”
Part of the legislation proposed in 2003 was to have fixed 4 year terms for the WA Parliament.
“I’m also opposed to this as it is a restriction on the ability of the elected government to call an early election should circumstances warrant it.”
“In these times of terrorist attacks and deadly tsunamis, it’s possible that urgent but highly controversial action may be proposed mid-term by the government of the day.”
“The government may want to prove to its critics that it has strong public support for its controversial proposals by calling and winning an early election, but a fixed 4 year term would make this impossible.”
“Democracy will be the loser if these measures are introduced. They will make governments and political parties less accountable to the people and they allow power brokers to exert even stronger control over their parties.”
Party power brokers know it is easier to accept public funding after each election than to control large numbers of lay members who want to be actively involved in decision-making and policy-setting.
Former Liberal MP Bernie Masters believes that his opposition to public funding of political parties contributed to his loss of support from his former party.
“In late 2003 when this issue was first raised by Electoral Affairs minister Jim McGinty, I advised then leader Colin Barnett that I was opposed to taxpayers’ money being used in this way,” Mr Masters said.
“The issue was then raised at my preselection where I was criticised for daring to oppose what was the party line in support of taxpayer funding of political parties,” he said.
“The arguments in support of funding the major parties in this way are based upon the perceived need to stop donors from having undue influence over the parties and candidates to whom they’re providing money.”
“However, unless laws are created to prevent donations being made to political parties except from the public purse, then the potential will always remain for someone to try and buy influence by making a donation.”
“The truth is that donations to political parties from their usual sources are drying up.”
“The Labor Party gets most of its money from the union movement, but union membership is at an all time low level and the ability of unions to fund the ALP is being stretched.”
“Business donations to the Liberal Party are now available for the public to see and many companies fear upsetting their shareholders or losing customers if they provide money to just one party.”
“More and more companies now make relatively small donations to both major parties at election time so as not to annoy a party that may form the next government.”
“Ultimately, taxpayer funding of political parties is a threat to our democratic political system since it will make lay party members even less important than they are at present.”
Part of the legislation proposed in 2003 was to have fixed 4 year terms for the WA Parliament.
“I’m also opposed to this as it is a restriction on the ability of the elected government to call an early election should circumstances warrant it.”
“In these times of terrorist attacks and deadly tsunamis, it’s possible that urgent but highly controversial action may be proposed mid-term by the government of the day.”
“The government may want to prove to its critics that it has strong public support for its controversial proposals by calling and winning an early election, but a fixed 4 year term would make this impossible.”
“Democracy will be the loser if these measures are introduced. They will make governments and political parties less accountable to the people and they allow power brokers to exert even stronger control over their parties.”
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